iPhone pays for itself in China in 2018. This year, Apple will be able to score points with its smartphone models, especially in China. The analysts of KGI Securities, above all, Ming-Chi Kuo are sure. For example, there is talk of an even larger iPhone X. Purely statistically, devices with large displays in the high-end sector are selling very well there.
The headlines on this investor note by KGI Securities are often: The iPhone X has sold worse than expected in China, everything will be better in 2018. But as Mac Life Readers know that there were some very different evaluations of the iPhone from Apple. Especially in China Apple was able to grow significantly in 2017. The performance of the iPhone X was in Chin a not so bad. However, the iPhone 7 Plus is said to have sold particularly well.
2018 with an even larger display
What will change compared to 2017 on Apple's iPhone range is above all the display size. In addition to an iPhone X, as we know it from last year, comes another model that will offer even a larger display. In addition to an OLED model with still 5.8 inches screen diagonal, there should be another 6.5-inch OLED. In between, Apple will probably also offer a 6.1-inch model with an LCD screen.
The two larger variants are expected to further boost demand in China.
Forecast adjusted downwards
KGI Securities has downgraded its own forecast for sales of the iPhone X. In Q1 2018 to 18 million devices and in Q2 2018 to 13 million devices. This is below the average of market observers. It estimates that Apple will sell 20-30 million Face ID devices in Q1 and 15-20 million units in Q2.
iPhone X Soon to Be Iron
About mid-2018 The iPhone X will then reach the end of its product cycle, as in autumn a new model is offered. KGI Securities had initially thought that Apple will sell around 80 million iPhone X in this time. Now it is assumed that there are about 62 million pieces.
Change cycle lasts longer
According to KGI there are two main reasons for the "bad" performance. Consumers would now wait ten months longer to replace the devices than a year earlier. In Q4 2016, there were still 14 to 16 months that a change cycle lasts, but between 24 and 26 months have already passed in Q4 2017.
The second reason is the demand for large displays. The display of the iPhone X is too small for some. In addition, many apps from China have not yet taken full advantage of the space because they have not been optimized for use with the notch.